Japanese Stocks Eke Out Gains as Market Eyes Trump Tariff Plans

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  • Jan 20, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks eked out small gains on Tuesday, finding stability after their wild swings following comments from US President Donald Trump that he would enact tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico next month.

Although Trump’s pledge disappointed those who had bet there would be no immediate tariff following a Wall Street Journal report, it was still better than investors’ worst fear of a universal levy which would have directly threatened Japan’s $150 billion exports to the United States.

The Topix Index rose 0.1% to 2,713.50 having erased fall of as much as 0.6% at one point. The Nikkei advanced 0.3% to 39,027.98.

Trump said he planned to go ahead with 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico but some analysts also said the potential impact was partially baked into market prices.

“The market was partly prepared. The lesson from Trump 1.0. was that you should sell on rumor of tariff and buy on fact,” said Toshiya Matsunami, chief analyst at Nissay Asset Management.

Even shares of carmakers, seen as the most vulnerable to tariffs because of significant exports to US from factories in Japan and Mexico, managed to erase early losses to ended with small gains. Toyota Motor finished 0.2% higher.

There will be temporary damage to the share prices of some car manufacturers that ship to the US from Mexico, says Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. Unless it’s universal tariffs, it will not lead to a significant deterioration in sentiment that would weigh on broader Japanese stocks, he adds.

Despite the market’s swings, investors remain confident the Bank of Japan will go ahead with a widely-anticipated rate hike on Friday.

Money market instruments are pricing in a more than 90% chance of a rate hike to 0.50%. Bank shares, however, were weaker, as investors took profits from their recent gains ahead of the BOJ’s policy meeting.

Chip-related shares were a bright spot, with the MSCI Japan semiconductor index up almost 2 percent, as some market players drew comfort from Trump’s silence on the issue of curbing chip exports to China.

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This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Toshiro Hasegawa.