(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s seaborne crude exports saw their biggest drop since November last week after outgoing US President Joe Biden imposed sweeping sanctions on the country’s oil trade, with early signs that the measures are reshaping flows.
The slump kept the less volatile four-week average below 3 million barrels a day for a fourth week and close to a recent 16-month low, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Since the latest sanctions were announced, there have been several signs of disruption, with tankers diverting, buyers looking elsewhere and an emerging shortage of un-sanctioned vessels available to load cargoes at Kozmino, Russia’s most important eastern port.
The measures will be felt particularly strongly in Russia’s Pacific flows. About three-quarters of ESPO cargoes shipped since the start of October were carried on vessels that have now been sanctioned, while the entire fleets of specialized shuttle tankers used by the Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 oil and gas projects have also been blacklisted. Ultimately, the impact on volumes will depend on how rigorously the sanctions are enforced by the incoming administration in Washington.
India has said that it will allow sanctioned tankers booked before Jan. 10, when the US announced its latest measures, to discharge at its ports until March 12, the end of a US-imposed wind-down period. But the country’s state-owned refiners say the impact may be temporary, as Moscow finds workarounds. They also expect the new Trump administration to take a softer line against Moscow.
The first sanctioned vessel to take on a Russian cargo after the Jan. 10 measures has discharged its load in China. The Zaliv Baikal offloaded about 700,000 barrels of Sakhalin Blend crude at Lianyungang’s Xinhaiwan terminal on Sunday, having loaded it a day after it was sanctioned.
Crude Shipments
A total of 26 tankers loaded 19.26 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Jan. 19, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 21.06 million barrels on 27 ships the previous week.
Daily crude flows in the seven days to Jan. 19 were fell by about 260,000 barrels, or 9%, from the previous week to 2.75 million. Lower flows from the country’s Black Sea, Arctic and Pacific ports were partly offset by an increase in shipments from the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk. Flows from the smaller Baltic port of Ust-Luga remain depressed after an unexpected slump in late December.
Shipments from Russia’s most important Pacific port, Kozmino, rose slightly, but remained hampered by strong winds, with gusts reaching 30 miles an hour mid-week, according to data for nearby Nakhodka from Visualcrossing.com. Flows from the other two Pacific ports, which are tied to two separate projects off the coast of Sakhalin Island, both fell last week, but remain within their usual patterns over a four-week period.
Less volatile four-week average flows were unchanged from the previous week’s revised number, at 2.94 million barrels a day.
Crude shipments in the first three weeks of 2025 were about 340,000 barrels a day, or 10%, below the average for the whole of the previous year.
Two cargoes of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude were loaded at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea during the week.
Russia terminated its export targets at the end of May, opting instead to restrict production, in line with its partners in the OPEC+ oil producers’ group. The country’s output target is set at 8.978 million barrels a day until the end of March, after a planned easing of some output cuts was delayed for a third time.
Moscow has also pledged to make deeper output cuts between March and September to compensate for pumping above its OPEC+ quota last year, though this schedule could be revised.
Export Value
A jump in the price of Russian crude partly offset the marked decline in exports to leave the gross value of Moscow’s exports down by about $69 million to $1.38 billion in the week to Jan. 19.
Export values at Baltic ports were up week-on-week by about $3.40 a barrel, while those for Black Sea loading increased by about $3.90 a barrel. The price for key Pacific grade ESPO rose by about $1.50 compared with the previous week. Delivered prices in India were up by about $4.20, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
Four-week average income rose to about $1.39 billion a week, from $1.37 billion in the period to Jan. 12.
On this basis, the price of Russia’s shipments from the Baltic in the four weeks to Jan. 19 was up by about $2.20 a barrel from the period to Jan. 12, while those for Black Sea loading increased by about $2.10 a barrel. Prices for key Pacific grade ESPO were higher by about $1.30 a barrel.
Flows by Destination
Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, fell to 2.57 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 19. That’s about 20% below the average level seen during the most recent peak in April.
About 980,000 barrels a day of crude were loaded onto tankers heading to China. The Asian nation’s seaborne imports are boosted by about 800,000 barrels a day of crude delivered from Russia by pipeline, either directly, or via Kazakhstan.
Flows on ships signaling destinations in India averaged 1.33 million barrels a day, down from a revised 1.41 million for the period to Jan. 12.
The Indian figures, in particular, are likely to rise as the discharge ports become clear for vessels that are not currently showing final destinations. Most of those heading from Russia’s western ports through the Suez Canal end up in the south Asian nation.
The equivalent of about 240,000 barrels a day was on vessels signaling Port Said or Suez in Egypt. Those show up as “Unknown Asia” until a final destination becomes apparent.
Another 730,000 barrels, equal to about 30,000 barrels a day over a 28-day period, are on a tanker that is yet to show a destination outside Russia.
Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries have ceased, with flows to Bulgaria halted at the end of 2023. Moscow also lost about 500,000 barrels a day of pipeline exports to Poland and Germany at the start of 2023, when those countries stopped purchases.
Turkey is now the only short-haul market for shipments from Russia’s western ports, with flows in the 28 days to Jan. 19 up by 100,000 barrels a day from the period to Jan. 12 to about 370,000 barrels a day, its highest since November.
NOTES
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Jan. 28.
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
--With assistance from Sherry Su.
