(Bloomberg) -- China’s strategy of defending its currency by choking local liquidity is sending ripples throughout the financial system, squeezing banks and fueling losses at bond funds.
The People’s Bank of China has drained cash through open market operations most days this month, supporting the yuan by making it more scarce. But that has had unintended consequences: Banks have hoarded cash rather than lend it to rivals, while debt funds have suffered losses as investors sell bonds to raise money. China’s 10-year bond yield hit its highest level since December on Monday.
The latest sign of a cash crunch at Chinese banks is a sharp drop in their lending through repurchase contracts, or repo. The country’s biggest banks cut their lending in the repo market by around two-thirds in mid-February compared with the daily average last year, according to people familiar with the matter.
“If banks’ cash-borrowing pressure keeps building and the costs further climb, it may limit their ability to issue loans and support the economy,” Yang Yewei, an analyst at local brokerage Guosheng Securities, wrote in a note. “We doubt tightness in funding can be sustained for a long period.”
The PBOC didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment.
The central bank offered 300 billion yuan of one-year funds on Tuesday through the medium-term lending facility, a monthly tool that it uses alongside open market operations. But as 500 billion yuan of MLF borrowing matured, that amounted to a 200 billion yuan withdrawal on a net basis this month.
“The under rollover of MLF was as expected and in line with the policy to gradually fade MLF. However, this has to be supplemented by some outright reverse repo operations. Otherwise, liquidity is likely to stay on the tight side,” said Frances Cheung, head of FX & rates strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
The cash crunch has come at a bad time for Chinese banks. Their deposits from other non-bank financial institutions declined about a quarter from November’s level in just two months, after regulators moved late last year to limit the rates they can pay on interbank deposits. Slumping savings rates have also put pressure on deposits.
The seven-day interbank repo rate has stayed well above the PBOC’s own reverse repo rate, a key anchor for the market. The spread exceeded half a percentage point every day last week, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Yields on banks’ negotiable certificates of deposit also climbed their to highest level in months this week.
Bond Funds Suffering
Meanwhile, more than half of the Chinese funds that invest in the bond market were sitting on year-to-date losses by mid-February, according to the China Securities Journal, a state-owned publication.
These funds have been hit hard by the liquidity squeeze, which has weighed on debt prices as investors sell bonds to free up cash. Their woes have been exacerbated by a resurgence of interest in the stock market, fueled by optimism over Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek and signs of Beijing’s renewed support for the private sector.
“The poor performance in fixed income fund products made them vulnerable to potential outflows when sentiment on equities is improving,” Lv Pin, an analyst at Topsperity Securities, wrote in a note. “This may exacerbate the selling pressure in the bond market and pose a risk of negative feedback loop,” he added.
A Bloomberg index that tracks the performance of Chinese government bonds is set for its first monthly loss since September 2023.
The ripple effects for banks and bond funds in the country show how China’s determination to defend its currency is increasingly becoming a problem for investors. The PBOC’s stimulus blitz in September suggested a new era of loose monetary policy but since then the central bank has flip-flopped, amid fears that too much easing will weigh on the currency.
READ: PBOC’s Policy Flip-Flop Sows Confusion Over Timing of Rate Cuts
Still, some market watchers think the central bank will soon offer relief. Traders are paying particular attention to China’s all-important Two Sessions meeting in March, when senior officials in Beijing will announce their policy priorities for the year.
“By tolerating some tightness in funding for now, China is likely just seizing the window of some temporary relief on a smaller-than-expected US tariff hike,” said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The current delay in PBOC easing measures may eventually turn into more effective easing in the future.”
The onshore yuan was trading at around 7.2564 per dollar on Tuesday. It has strengthened against the greenback this year, but remains far weaker than the roughly 7 yuan per dollar level it was at before the PBOC’s stimulus blitz in late September.
--With assistance from Yujing Liu.
(Adds details of MLF operation in paragraph five, quote in paragraph six; updates yuan level in final paragraph)
