(Bloomberg) -- Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched near the level needed for nuclear weapons surged more than 50% in the last three months, defying mounting pressure on the Islamic Republic to curb its atomic activities.
In its first report on Iran since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tehran had increased the monthly accumulation rate for highly-enriched uranium sevenfold since December. The country is now producing the equivalent of one bomb’s worth of material a month, according to IAEA figures.
That material could quickly be upgraded to levels typically used in nuclear weapons — a concern long held by the US, Europe and Israel. Iran has always denied its nuclear development is for military use, saying the focus is on energy and civilian technology.
“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such material, is of serious concern,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi wrote in the 14-page report seen by Bloomberg. Iran ramped up production of uranium enriched to 60% levels of purity in response to being censured by the IAEA in November.
After pulling out of an international deal that limited Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief during his first term, Trump this month revived a so-called maximum pressure campaign to weaken the Persian Gulf nation’s economy. The US intends to squeeze Iran’s oil exports to just 1/10th of current levels, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Feb. 14.
Trump has said he would “prefer” a new nuclear accord, though Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled out talks with the US while it intensifies its maximum pressure strategy on the Islamic Republic.
The IAEA report comes as tension builds between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas, designated a terrorist organization in the US and many other countries. A fragile ceasefire between the two sides in Gaza is due to expire next week, with little concrete progress yet made toward an extension.
A return to fighting would increase the focus on Tehran, which also sponsors other Middle East militia such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel and Iran twice exchanged direct missile fire last year, though the skirmishes stopped short of a full-blown war.
The latest nuclear data was prepared for the IAEA’s board, which is expected to weigh a new resolution of censure against Iran when it convenes March 3 in Vienna. At the last meeting, inspectors were instructed to compile evidence that could be used to snap back UN Security Council sanctions before they’re due to expire in October. That special report is expected to be published by the second quarter.
Increasing its high-enriched uranium production meant that Iran drew down its 20% stockpile for the first time in four years. But new volumes of the heavy metal also entered the pipeline, with inventories of uranium enriched to below 5% increasing almost two-fifths to 6,582 kilograms.
Inspectors increased the frequency of visits to Iran’s fuel-making facilities following December’s step-change in production. The agency would be able to detect any diversion of material within days, should Iran attempt to remove it from safeguards.
Grossi wrote that he’s “seriously concerned” that Iran has yet to clarify the source of uranium particles detected at undeclared locations, according to a separate 9-page report seen by Bloomberg. Iran has yet to provide inspectors with a “technically credible” explanation for their presence.
Monitors warned additional dangers loom. Iran is nearing completion of a heavy-water reactor, which could produce plutonium — another heavy metal used in nuclear weapons. Commissioning of the so-called Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor near the city of Arak is expected later this year with operation starting from 2026.
While Iran has always insisted it isn’t pursuing weapons, international mistrust of its ultimate ambitions led diplomats to hammer out the 2015 accord. The Islamic Republic only began enriching uranium close to the level needed for bombs in 2021, three years after Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal.
(Adds weapons equivalent in the second paragraph, inspection details from the 10th.)
