Why the market is wrong about Bitcoin’s future

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  • Mar 12, 2025

As Bitcoin fights to hold the $80,000 mark, market watchers are grappling with macroeconomic jitters and crypto-specific headwinds. But according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, concerns over recent market downturns — and disappointment over the White House's foray into crypto — might be missing the bigger picture.

"I think the market has overlooked what the executive order actually says," Hougan told Coinage. He added, "I think it will soon realize that that's a bullish catalyst."

The order, which directs the President's Working Group along with the Secretaries of Commerce and Treasury to investigate ways to add Bitcoin to the U.S. Strategic Reserve, has sparked debate. While some investors had hoped for an immediate government Bitcoin buy, Hougan believes the directive's long-term implications have been misread. "What it said is that the Secretary of Commerce and Treasury shall investigate ways to add Bitcoin to this balance sheet, as long as it doesn't negatively impact shareholders. Not that it may or that it could, but that they shall do it," he emphasized.

Hougan sees this as a signal to other governments as well. "The number of Bitcoin that's in the reserve today is the minimum number, and it's likely to go up in the long term. And, more than that, the signaling this provides ... will catalyze a race to acquire Bitcoin."

Still, short-term volatility is undeniable. Hougan acknowledged the risk of Bitcoin dipping back to $72,000, especially as the macroeconomic landscape wrestles with fears of tariffs and a potential recession. But he emphasized the long game. "If you're investing in Bitcoin, you're making a bet that it will be worth $1 million in the future," he said. "Whether you buy it at 80 or 70 or 90 or 100 is almost irrelevant."

Beyond Bitcoin, Hougan highlighted shifting dynamics for other crypto assets. While altcoins have historically followed Bitcoin's lead, he believes the market is moving into a new phase. "I actually think we're moving into a new regime where those assets are evaluated independently on their metrics and tractions," he said. Ethereum, for instance, may benefit from activity in Layer-2s and tokenization trends. But Solana, still recalibrating after its memecoin surge, may face headwinds . "I think there's at least a risk that Solana suffers from a narrative gap as it transitions from memecoin focused activity to more real world asset focused activity."

On the regulatory front, Hougan noted that the broader crypto market is still adjusting to a post-Gensler era. While XRP has surged, buoyed by clarity around its business model, he expressed surprise that other chains haven't seen similar gains. "The entire space, in my view, should be revalued and reconsidered in this new regulatory era," he said. "My base view is that the market doesn't understand how challenging it was six months ago, and so they don't appreciate the wide-open pasture that exists today."

Despite current volatility, Hougan remains bullish. Bitwise has forecasted Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year's end. "For the last 17 years, every time there's been an economic ripple, politicians have talked tough but ultimately buckled," he said. "Once we see Washington blink in some way, shape, or form... I think we're [at a] bottom and we're off to the races."

To capitalize on the growing corporate interest in Bitcoin, Bitwise recently launched the OWNB ETF, targeting companies holding significant Bitcoin reserves. "There are now 70 publicly traded companies around the world that collectively own about 650,000 Bitcoin," Hougan explained. "We think that number will double or triple in the year ahead."

While Hougan acknowledged concerns about overleveraged companies like MicroStrategy, he remains confident in the broader trend. "I think the bigger trend we're going to see is even large companies, even some of the large cap U.S. companies, eventually adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet." On Wednesday, Rumble announced it was acquiring more Bitcoin with another purchase of nearly $20 million .

For Hougan, the path forward is clear. "Crypto has been the best tool for long-term investors for the past ten years. And I think it's better positioned than ever."

With macro uncertainty looming and regulatory landscapes shifting, Hougan’s message is one of cautious optimism: Short-term volatility may shake the market, but the long-term case for Bitcoin — and crypto at large — remains strong.