On March 18, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the Bitcoin bull cycle is over, with a bearish or sideways price action for the next 6-12 months.
To back the claim, Ju cited on-chain metrics such as the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals. The metric plots a 365-day moving average (MA) against on-chain data — the asset’s price in this case, and suggests Buy or Sell signals.
Ki’s post showed that the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals suggested selling the asset at this point.
Ki posted a Principal Component Analysis chart also that uses metrics such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), etc. to plot a 365-day MA. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 365-day MA changes.
It showed the 365-day MA moving closer to the real-time price points over the years. Mid-2023 onwards, the 365-day MA is much lower than the price points. There is no indication of the MA trending higher than the price points.
A detailed bull-bear market indicator also hinted at an upcoming bear market for Bitcoin.
There is little new liquidity in the market and whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices, Ju highlighted. In addition, the Bitcoin ETF netflow has been negative for three weeks in a row.
Ju added that he will nonetheless hold his Bitcoin and not short it.
Panic much... What do other experts think?
Ju's analysis stands in sharp contrast to his earlier stance when he posted on Feb. 19, "I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year. We’re still in a bull cycle."
However, not everyone is as gloomy as Ju.
A millionaire trader, known for astute predictions, expected Bitcoin to hit $100,000 by the end of March.
A pseudonymous crypto analyst expected a Bitcoin rally on the heel of the global M2 money supply reaching a new high.
M2 refers to cash and other assets such as savings deposits, money market deposit accounts, etc. that aren't as liquid as cash but can still be easily converted to cash.
As per Kraken's price feeds , Bitcoin was trading at $82,355.47 at press time with a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion.
