Analysts say Bitcoin reacted to inflation before the Fed woke up

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  • Mar 31, 2025

Bitcoin may be volatile, but according to Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, it saw the inflation wave coming long before it showed up in CPI data.

“In 2021's rally, Bitcoin essentially said they are printing like there's no tomorrow, and so it basically priced in the inflation early,” Lakha said on a Deribit’s podcast . “And then when we finally got the inflation… there was so much political pressure from Biden to get the Fed to hike rates. That was kind of the trigger for that crazy hiking cycle.”

When the Fed started tightening faster than ever, Bitcoin sold off. Lakha explained, “We're going from a world where we're printing and debasing currency to suddenly we're tightening faster than ever, right? So I think it makes a lot of sense that it should lead the inflation cycle.”

Gold vs. Bitcoin — depends on your timeframe

David Brickell, Head of International Distribution at FRNT Financial, said Bitcoin is still maturing but its fundamentals make it a strong store of value — even if it's bumpy in the short term.

“It's the qualities of Bitcoin… like the limited supply… that make it that store of value,” he said. “Over time, those qualities kind of win out. But short term, in a 60–70 vol asset, obviously we get pushed around a bit.”

“People say gold's doing its job, but you know that Bitcoin outperformed gold over the last year. So what's your time frame?”

Bitcoin's strength is in what it teaches

Andrew Theodosiou, EMEA Sales Director at Talos, believes Bitcoin’s biggest hurdle is that most people still don’t understand it — but once they do, they rarely walk away.

“Bitcoin is not even two decades old, and we're already comparing it to the longest inflation hedge asset ever,” he said. “There’s nobody that studied it that hasn't recognized its value and hasn't invested.”

He added: “It’s almost like this virus that’s going to just keep infecting more people… understanding its properties leads to it being an asset.”

Is Bitcoin just acting like a stock?

Many critics argue that Bitcoin is just tracking tech stocks, especially in recent months. Imran asked if this is a “regime thing” — where BTC sometimes mirrors equities, but zooming out shows a different story.

Dennis Ehlert, Deputy Head of Derivatives Trading at AMINA Bank, said recent market action reflects that.

“If you look at it from a long time horizon, you will find your correlations… and that it’s de-correlating on a short-term frame,” Ehlert said. “Over the last weeks and months, I'm convinced that Bitcoin was heavily impacted by Trump, by the tariffs, by the policies… that are about to be set in motion.”

“So it acted as a risk asset,” he added. “Vol exploded on the front end of the curve… and it was trading very parallel to stocks.”