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  • Aug 19, 2024

Fed to deliver three 25 quarter-point rate cuts this year; recession unlikely: Reuters poll

The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining three meetings of 2024, one more reduction than predicted last month, according to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters who said a recession is unlikely. The change in Fed rate cut calls follows a weaker-than-expected July U.S. jobs report, which encouraged interest rate futures traders to price in as much as 120 basis points of reductions in 2024 earlier this month. Although some Fed officials have hinted rate cuts are coming, most economists in the Aug. 14-19 Reuters poll were not expecting a rapid series of rate cuts.

  • Aug 19, 2024

Fed's Kashkari says appropriate to debate Sept rate cut, WSJ reports

"The balance of risks has shifted, so the debate about potentially cutting rates in September is an appropriate one to have," Kashkari told the Journal in an interview. Kashkari's comments come after St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic made remarks that gravitated toward an interest rate cut next month.

  • Aug 19, 2024

Fed's pandemic-era vow to prioritize employment may soon be tested

Four years after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made fighting unemployment a bigger priority during the COVID-19 pandemic, he faces a pivotal test of that commitment amid rising joblessness, mounting evidence inflation is under control, and a benchmark interest rate that is still the highest in a quarter of a century. High interest rates may be on the way out, with the U.S. central bank expected to deliver a first cut at its Sept. 17-18 meeting and Powell potentially providing more information about the approach to the policy easing in a speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But with the Fed's policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year, the impact of relatively high borrowing costs on the economy may still be building and could take time to unwind even if the central bank starts cutting - a dynamic that could put hopes for a "soft landing" of controlled inflation alongside continued low unemployment at risk.

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